Home / World News / The “mother of all stats” doesn’t see the Patriots as Super Bowl contenders – The Denver Post

The “mother of all stats” doesn’t see the Patriots as Super Bowl contenders – The Denver Post

The NFL playoffs are set, giving us a chance to look over the field and separate the pretenders from the contenders.

Last year’s defending champions, the top-seeded New England Patriots, will try to win back-to-back titles while enjoying home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, ensuring that any Super Bowl run from the conference runs through Gillette Stadium.

They appear to be a worthy favorite — the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has them as a 2-to-1 odds — after scoring a league-high 2.6 points per drive behind an MVP-caliber season from quarterback Tom Brady, the third-most valuable passer in 2017 per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating.

However, there is at least one reason to doubt their chances of winning Coach Bill Belichick a sixth Super Bowl ring with the franchise: The Patriots have net passer rating differential of 13.1, the 10th highest in the league this season.

Dubbed the “Mother of All Stats” during the 2012 Pro Football Researchers Association biennial meeting hosted by NFL Films, net passer rating has been a good litmus test for Super Bowl caliber teams. Since 2002, 22 of the past 30 Super Bowl participants had a passer rating differential among the top five best in the league, including 10 of the past 15 winners. The outliers among the eventual Super Bowl winners include the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (7th), 2007 New York Giants (24th), 2011 Giants (12th), 2012 Baltimore Ravens (12th) and the 2015 Denver Broncos (18th).

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